Week 12 Picks

Man, this was really tough, so I'm not going to put any frills on this weekend and I'm going to do two lineups for Thursday night to Monday. Going to play this one safe.

Lineup 1:

Manning
Ivory
Blue
OBJ
S Johnson
A Brown
Barnridge
Barth
Kansas City

Lineup 2:

Palmer
C Johnson
Yeldon
Decker
Thomas
Fitz
Eifert
Gould
Cardinals

$300 left over after lineup 2. Make your changes as necessary.

Thursday Only? I have no idea: Stafford, Stewart, Forte, Jeffrey, C Johnson, Cobb, Bennett, Gould, Panthers

Week 12 Prospects

This is dumb. I hate the split between who plays on Thursday and who plays the rest of typically scheduled football. I ruled out a lot of players and good reasons for all of them, but for the time being I'm just going to post the players I like. I need to suck it up and pick two lineups for either Thursday only or Thursday night to Monday night. I think I'm going to do the Thursday night to Monday night but that really pisses me off that I have to dip so low into the picks because we are basically losing half the league to Thanksgiving Day games. This is a huge win for FanDuel...

New little feature. I'm just coping and pasting out of my match up pivot table. So if you see a colorful table you'll see the full technical picks based on the best players per position in the last three weeks playing the worst teams against each position, all greater than 10 points average per game.

QB: Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Hoyer if you're looking for some set up for greatness at value.

Palmer, Carson

Wilson, Russell

RB: Ivory, West, and Blue at value.

Ivory, Chris

Yeldon, T.J.

Draughn, Shaun

Blue, Alfred

Powell, Bilal

WR: OBJ, Antonio Brown, and I'm currently stacking Dwayne Harris in a value spot as he's a solid WR2 pick to go along with my other two studs.

Brown, Antonio

Jones, Julio

Bryant, Martavis

Beckham Jr., Odell

Evans, Mike

Baldwin, Doug

Jackson, Vincent

Landry, Jarvis

Aiken, Kamar

Hankerson, Leonard

Johnson, Calvin

Thomas, Demaryius

Lockett, Tyler

TE: Barnridge is in the best position statistically but what the fuck do I know about TE's?

K: Brown has the highest FandDuel points per game per dollar value and he's going to be on a high scoring winnings team. So yeah.

Def: Bucs. I have to have someone playing on the bucs, that's all I care about. Indianapolis has no WR or QB in a top 10 spot and you never have to worry about the Bucs stopping a run game - they just stop run games.

I'll try and add more prospects as I go.

Week 11 Results

Terrible.

 

Bet $52, lost $52.

It was a tough week for everyone playing, the high scores were around 129, which is pathetic. Lots of injuries, lots of players who simply didn't perform. The best matchups didn't seem to matter, the best players didn't hit their 2x.

What I learned

It was dumb to pit a running back who had all the potential in the world against a run stopping defense. The bucs shut down Philly, not just Murray. I realized how counter-intuitive it was to pick a RB who had no chance against a good defense. Technically and fundamentally Murray could have done far better but he did not because the matchup shut him down. Matchups mean more to the RB position than I thought.

Tight ends shouldn't be gambled in cash games. I know, Gronk didn't do well either, but Tamme was not the second or even third best TE to pick. He had the metrics to deliver a good game but he's not a high floor tight end.

Injuries can happen everywhere. Evans took a huge hit early and wasn't passed to. Crabtree took a huge hit and they backed off on him. Injuries are the wild card of DFS that you can't account for with most players. Sure, we knew Amendola (knee) was going to get hurt, but you can't always predict things like that. But you can't guess them all.

It is very had to win when your QB doesn't do well. That's all there is to say about that.

I'm retarded with my bankroll. I bet everything on these games. I should have stuck with the 20% over a minimum of two lineups strategy. My thinking there was that, based on the numbers, there was no chance other players would do well this week. Well, no other players did well, it's just that mine didn't do well either.

Week 12 to come. 

Week 11 Picks

It's funny how quickly, looking back at prospects, things change. Of course the best of the best stayed on my picks but I'm pretty determined to stay true to my selection criteria this week.

QB: Carr

Notes: No other QB is facing a worse defense both against WRs and QBs right now. I'm very happy with this pick.

RB: D Murray, L Miller
Others: West, Langford

Notes: I'm risking Murray's high carries will be awarded to him again this week because they are using a backup QB and have a WR on the bench this week. Bucs don't do too bad at stopping the run game but that's not to say they won't have their issues.

WR: C Johnson, M Crabtree, M Evans
Others: D Hopkins, A Robinson

Notes: You could probably mix and match those five and do really well this week. I'm excited for Mike Evans going up against the worst defense against WRs this week. Calvin Johnson is a serious toss up between him and A Robinson as they are both in the same value but Johnson is still outpacing anyone else on his team and he's getting the targets. Hopkins will be an excellent pick this week if you an afford him, everything looks to be in line for him. Finally, Crabtree is doing far better than Amari Cooper right now.

TE: Tamme
Others: Gronk

Notes: If you can afford Gronk then you should play him, no matter what. Tamme has been following the criteria rules for the last few games, I'm sticking with him.

Kicker: C Catanzaro

Notes: Of the top five kickers in the last three weeks, Catanzaro has the highest scoring game as predicted by Vegas. Not much to say after that.

Defense: Bucs

Notes: Bucs have a bad secondary but are great at stopping the running game. Playing Philly, with an injured WR and QB, they should have no problem shutting them down. Also, Vegas shows the game scoring low.

Week 11 Strategy: Matured Best vs. Worst

I'm running out of fancy names for the titles of this bullshit but here goes:

Criteria order from most important to least important.

QB:

1. Highest scoring QBs, normally top ten
2. Playing the worst Defense against QBs
3. Most passing attempts
4. Playing the worst Defense against WRs
5. Vegas predicting high scoring but tight games.

Notes: I'd actually like to try a blended average of worst defense against QBs and WRs. That would really be awesome, but I'm lazy. You can always find someone who fits the first three criteria. If your QB's team is going to absolutely crush the other team this week you may want to look elsewhere, teams tend to run the ball if they are up by enough.

RB:

1. Highest scoring RBs, normally RB1 top five and RB2 top 15
2. Playing worst Defense against RBs
3. Vegas predicting a high scoring game with your RB on the winning team
4. Most rushing attempts (Not yards!)
5. Game flow and injuries

Notes: Variance between best RBs and worst defenses is valued most in the RB position than any other position. This should matter most. You'll see a huge boost in points if the game is predicted to be high scoring with your team favored to win, mainly because teams tend to run the ball when they take a large lead.

WR:

1. Highest scoring WRs
2. Targets, targets, targets
3. Playing worst defenses against WRs
4. Matchup against the corner. Does that corner shadow the best WR or stay on one side?
5. Injuries

Notes: A good WR will get open no matter who they are playing, but they'll always do better in the first half against teams they intend to beat. Make sure they are targeted heavily and good things will come. You can spend some time looking into their corner match up for the week. This will have some real value as some corners tend to out perform others while they shadow the best WRs. If your WR always lines up left but the defense they are playing always puts their best corner on the right, you can expect some serious gains.

TE:

1. Highest scoring TEs
2. Playing worst defense against TEs
3. Playing worst defense against WRs
4. Size matters! There's a direct correlation to TE's size and redzone touchdown scoring
5. Playing against pass rushing defenses

Notes: 1 and 2 are weighted the most, but if you're looking for an edge you can look into the type of defense your picks are playing. If the defense makes your TE's QB make quick decisions you'll get yards.

K:

1. Vegas predictions on high scoring games
2. Highest scoring Ks

Notes: Not much here. I wouldn't spend big money on kickers. High scoring games that Vegas predicts will equate to more chances for kickers. It's that easy.

DEF:

1. Highest scoring DEFs
2. Turnovers and opponent turnovers
3. Vegas predicting low scoring games
4. Playing against a QB with lots of interceptions

Notes: The lower the score the better, but defenses really get points when they are able to turn the ball over. Also, check out how well the other QB is doing. You can find that stat on the day of the game by google "Bovada QB Player Props" and looking at how many turnovers Vegas (I know Bovada is Latvian) are predicted.

Week 11 Prospects

This document is intended for notes and does is not a complete lineup.

QB: Carr has the best matchup against all QBs, Detroit. He's a shoe in.

WR: Really tough to tell this week. There are 0 (Maybe 1?) WRs that are in the top 10 in scoring who are playing the bottom 10 defenses.

RB: I like to first take the top 10 FD point scoring RBs, then choose whoever is playing the worst defenses, and pick the ones who have the most carries. Steps 1 and 2 leave us with West, Langford, and Miller; none of which have the most carries. Carries is the most important stat here, so I may have to make some changes to how I go about doing this for the week.

TE: No information yet. I really like Antonio Gates, but we'll see.

K: Connor Barth again, always.

Def: Bengals based on match ups.

Other Guys:

Really looking hard at Murray right now. Bradford and Matthews are both injured and out this week. That means lots of handoffs to the one and only. He's 10th in attempts, 4th in FD points, and is playing the Bucs who don't do a terrible job at stopping RBs but aren't the best in the world at 19th.

Week 10 Results

A very successful week. Cousins came through and I was very happy with where the rest of my value picks landed.

Total Points: 146.76
Total Bet: $26
Total Won: 50 something dollars...

Results

I was very happy to see that my guys came through. 146 would have put me in the money for any double up or 5050 on FanDuel. And because there was such a low ceiling I was in the top 5 for every entry I made. That's a good feeling.

My favorite picks were, of course, Cousins, who was destined to have a great game but was such a low value player it freed up a ton of cash for a high level pick like AP. I was a litte sore about Evans not getting more yards. They throw so deep to him but he's more likely to draw a penalty than come down with a catch. Reed was my second favorite pick, only because he was chosen purely for the amount he's targeted. Seeing him get that first touchdown within minutes of the game felt great.

Rams were my most disappointing choice. I hate spending the most money for a position when it doesn't play out. I strive to break even with Defense and they didn't do anything exciting.

I'm beginning to mold my strategy and it's starting to pay off; literally.

Stats that matter most per position

I'm going to start laying out the groundwork for the things that matter most per position, so they can be skipped. I learned in Week 9 that using one stat for each position did not do well. Some stats are worth more than others. Let's narrow it down to the one's that matter the most.

Eventually, the goal here is to create a "research schedule" that begins with what you first look for all the way down to the last things to consider when making your picks, including a weight for each of those things so you know how much emphasis you should put on each player.

Quarterbacks

Recently I've learned that game flow matters more than the matchup. A great QB on a team crushing a bad team will pull back on the reigns and run the ball, hurting your QB points for the week. Here's what I intend to look at for QBs:

1. Must be top 10 QB (most FD points average per game last three weeks) playing bottom 10 defense against QBs
2. One of the highest Sunday Play Props by Vegas
3. Tighter point spreads means more work for QBs instead of game flow dictating that they take a break when they are up, so the tighter the point spread the better.

Wide Receivers

If you could get rid of every stat, targets would matter the most.

1. Must be top 10 WR (most FD points average per game last three weeks) playing bottom 10 defense against WRs.
2. WR1 and WR2 should have very high average targets, they could even be on the same team.
3. WR3 should have high average targets and could be handcuffed to the QB.

Running Backs

Carries and matchups matter the most with RBs. The matchup matters more in RBs than anywhere else in Fantasy football. 

1. Must be top 5 RB1 (most FD points average per game last three weeks) playing bottom 5 defense against RB.
2. The bigger the point spread and the higher over/under the better the RB will do throughout the entire game, with the exception of a few teams who will use their Fullback to run plays if they are killing it.
3. Carries beats all! The more carries the better!

Rookie move: Signing up too soon

I just signed up for three low money $1 50/50s on Monday, three days before football starts on Thursday. Rookie move. Looking at the profiles of the people signing up that soon I can see I've got my work cut out for me. Their winnings were in the thousands compared to the measly trial and error scraps I've brought in.

Word of caution: Do not sign up early. You want to pit yourself against the guy who was just convinced on Wednesday to sign up on FanDuel and limp into a low ball 50/50. You don't want to play a few dozen guys who are doing so well that Monday Night Football means nothing to this weekend's entries so they are already thinking about next Thursday.

I'll see you Wednesday.

Week 10 Strategy: Over/Under Picks

Vegas has been around longer than all of us. It's common knowledge that higher scoring games produce more fantasy points. Let's use some research elsewhere as well as the Vegas over/under this week to pick the best players from the bunch.

Here's what we'll look for this week:

• Any team favored in a game where the over/under is greater than 48.
• Any underdog in a game where the over/under is greater than 50.

And then we'll use Week 9's Best vs. Worst to find the most valuable players on those teams.

More to come.

Week 9 Results

Here's the original Trial and Error strategy for Week 9: http://mydfs.blogspot.com/2015/11/week-8-trial-and-error-strategy-best-vs.html

Results Overview

Best vs. Worst did well and was a great analysis baseline. 24th percentile for cash games which is great and 17th percentile for tournaments which barely got me in the money. Best vs. Worst is a great starting point for establishing a winning team but would fail without more analysis on the current week at play.

Details

Here was my final lineup. You'll see Hillman traded out for Blount due to Hillman bouncing between questionable\probable which is something I typically shy away from, especially when there are other options.

From a scientifically analytical standpoint, since I'm not a scientist or an analyst, my goal is to get myself into the money. I did that. So I'm not sure if I'm review of the week should focus on the goods and bads. There are obviously players here who didn't do well, but the team I chose got me in the money. I didn't want players to do well, I wanted my team to do well. They achieved that. But a few notes in case I really want to analyze player related things later on:

Tom Brady - Did so well they started to run the ball. This was the highest rated Best vs. Worst matchup on this lineup. He did so well at beating Washington that they gave up throwing the ball. That's a variable to consider later.

Blount - I don't like choosing Blount or Lewis because they are so hit or miss. I think Blount did so well because they stopped throwing the ball when they went up so high.

D Martin - Fumbled the ball and the coach sat him for the rest of the first half. That's shoddy discipline and should be considered.

M Evans - Dropped 6 passes, which hasn't happened in the NFL for 10 years. Just a bad game on his behalf, he was still targeted plenty, which is what matters.

Crabtree - A purely Best vs. Worst statistics based pick. I knew nothing of his performance besides numbers and had no fundamental knowledge of the team. Glad it worked out.

Payout Results:

Bet $16 won $33

Here's what I can offer to prove that this is not a tournament winning strategy. Below is the winning team at 207 points for the $5 tournament I entered.

Besides Crabtree, none of these players are either top five or playing the worst five teams against their position.

Week 9 Trial and Error Strategy: Best vs. Worst

Overview:

Only pick players who are playing the five worst teams against that position. In other words, players who are playing teams who give up the most FanDuel points to each position are picked.

Data:

Players to pick data: Most average FD Points per game for the last three games
Worst teams data: Most average FD Points per game for the last three games scored against per position

Example: Best QB's last three weeks:

Example: Worst Defense against QB's last three weeks:

Most obvious pick: Philip Rivers against Chicago
Close Second: Tom Brady against Washington

Comments:

It's very hard to do only the top five players and top five teams against and stay within budget. When players do cost too much, you can still use the top five worst teams against. For example, I went with Eli Manning as my QB for reasons outside of this strategy as well as because he is playing Tampa Bay and is the cheapest option I trust playing the worst defenses.

My projection is this strategy is good for establishing a base of players who have nothing but potential for the next week. There needs to be more fundamental research per player, considering this strategy is on past performance and does not take into account injuries or other team changes that may have occurred in the last game. I'd suggest checking team health and doing your standard weekly depth chart review and injury report no matter what strategy you employ.

Projections:

I'm not totally sure applying this strategy is good for all positions. This is great for QB's, because they are very dependent on how well the defense has been stopping the passing game. This is also great for TE's, oddly enough, mainly because a standard passing game statistic for a defense isn't going to show you if they are doing good or bad against longer throws which involves the secondary or if they are struggling with a QB's short game. However, how poorly the other team does against the kicker? Cmon.

My projection is that this will do just fine, only because you're picking the best of the best. I think I'll lose to other players simply having a better game than my guys, for unknown reasons. This strategy will fare well in 50/50s, that's what I intend to use it on.

My First Lineup (Not Shown: Eagles Defense)

My second lineup after realizing Hillman is playing a weak defense and I could get Brady if I gave up the costly Lewis:

Eagles Defense

Results following next Monday's games.