Week 14 Lineups

Pos Player Name Inj Team Opp Salary FP Val
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick P NYJ TEN $7,800 18.2
RB Doug Martin TB NO $8,000 16.3 2.0
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR ATL $7,200 13.5
WR Mike Evans TB NO $8,000 12.5 1.6
WR Nate Washington HOU NE $5,200 10.3 2.0
WR Larry Fitzgerald Q ARI MIN $7,200 17.0
TE Greg Olsen CAR ATL $6,600 13.0 2.0
K Connor Barth TB NO $4,600 8.4 1.8
D Denver Broncos DEN OAK $5,400 9.8 1.8
Totals $60,000 119.0 2.0

Week 14 Match Ups

These are my favorite matchups so far:

QB's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Fitzpatrick, Ryan	nyj	ten	H	7800	300	72.82	3	24.27
Bortles, Blake	jac	ind	H	7700	300	67.82	3	22.6
Dalton, Andy	cin	pit	H	8200	200	66.62	3	22.2
Palmer, Carson	ari	min	H	8300	400	66.26	3	22.08
Winston, Jameis	tam	no	H	7800	600	64.92	3	21.64

WR's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Beckham Jr., Odell	nyg	mia	A	9300	-100	48.6	2	24.3
Marshall, Brandon	nyj	ten	H	8200	100	67.9	3	22.63
Robinson, Allen	jac	ind	H	8500	500	66.2	3	22.06
Wheaton, Markus	pit	cin	A	6100	100	43.1	2	21.55
Brown, Antonio	pit	cin	A	9300	300	41.9	2	20.95
Watkins, Sammy	buf	phi	A	7200	200	54.6	3	18.2
Johnson, Calvin	det	stl	A	7900	-600	54.5	3	18.16
Bryant, Martavis	pit	cin	A	7400	500	35.9	2	17.95
Green, A.J.	cin	pit	H	8500	100	52.3	3	17.43
Brown, John	ari	min	H	6300	300	39.4	3	13.13
Decker, Eric	nyj	ten	H	7300	100	38.9	3	12.96
Nelson, J.J.	ari	min	H	5400	300	38.9	3	12.96
Tate, Golden	det	stl	A	6400	-100	36.2	3	12.06
Fitzgerald, Larry	ari	min	H	7200	-100	34.1	3	11.36
Boldin, Anquan	sfo	cle	A	5900	-100	31.3	3	10.43
Green-Beckham, Dorial	ten	nyj	A	5100	0	30.6	3	10.2
Jones, Marvin	cin	pit	H	6200	1000	29	3	9.66

RB's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Martin, Doug	tam	no	H	8000	400	48.3	3	16.1
McCoy, LeSean	buf	phi	A	7900	100	48.1	3	16.03
Stewart, Jonathan	car	atl	H	7200	0	43.9	3	14.63
Sproles, Darren	phi	buf	H	5100	200	35.9	3	11.96
Blue, Alfred	hou	ne	H	5300	-700	32.7	3	10.9
Riddick, Theo	det	stl	A	5500	-300	32	3	10.66
Sims, Charles	tam	no	H	4900	-300	28.5	3	9.5

TE's - This is just matchups. I'd go with a rocksteady pick instead of matchups here.

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Rudolph, Kyle	min	ari	A	5000	-100	31.2	3	10.4
Brate, Cameron	tam	no	H	4900	0	28.2	3	9.4
Kelce, Travis	kan	sdg	H	6000	-200	27.2	3	9.06

DST

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Carolina	car	atl	H	5000	100	43	3	14.33
Kansas City	kan	sdg	H	4800	100	42	3	14
Denver	den	oak	H	5400	100	35	3	11.66
Seattle	sea	bal	A	5300	500	28	3	9.33
Detroit	det	stl	A	4700	200	21	3	7

Season Observations

I think I can accurately make some predictions about the flow of the season and where things are going to go, based on what I've read and what I've learned recently.

Bad teams will roll over

It's about that time in the season where bad teams will see the writing on the wall and give up. They'll win the games they are supposed to win but will secede to teams will most likely beat them. The teams who have no chance of getting into the playoffs will start to shut down for the season and being hibernation. Keep this is mind when looking at matchups.

Guaranteed teams will play it safe

If a team makes it to playoffs, don't expect them to do anything amazing once they are guaranteed. There's no chance they'll risk injuries or go above and beyond to beat a team.

Borderline teams will fight hard

Expect to see some amazing effort from teams with close matchups doing all they can to fight for the wildcard or reserve their spot in the playoffs. They'll throw the kitchen sink at other teams to get in.

Week 13 Results

Bet $24 and won $27, so it was a wash. I think I seriously lucked out by trusting the players to do well, because they did; everyone did. High scores all around. My four lineups were between 116 and 149 and only the 139 and 149 were in the money safely.

I think I can do a predicted and actual for some of my lineups, lets try:

Pos	Player Name	Inj	Team	Opp	Salary	FP	Act
QB	Cam Newton		CAR	@NO	$9,000	24	37.1
RB	DeAngelo Williams		PIT	IND	$7,200	17.7
RB	David Johnson		ARI	@STL	$5,900	16	19
WR	Antonio Brown		PIT	IND	$9,000	18.5	33.8
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	P	ARI	@STL	$7,300	15.8
WR	Marvin Jones		CIN	@CLE	$5,200	9.9	14
TE	Greg Olsen		CAR	@NO	$6,600	13.6	15.4
K	Blair Walsh		MIN	SEA	$4,800	8.8	1
D	Carolina Panthers		CAR	@NO	$4,900	10.8
Totals				$59,900	135.1	149.8

Meh, you get the point. I think I'm happy to have gotten out of that week as easily as I did. I was really worried for a bit, there was just way too high of performance from players would had semi- good matchups.

Week 13 Picks

I went a little farther in depth and stopped stressing so much with lineups this week. I going to see if lineups can do better by just relying on the skill set of the players and less of the match ups. Also, I completely eliminated any team playing in the rain, snow, less than 50 degrees or with winds higher than 10mph.

Also, my tables are looking better in my excel sheet. Can you tell?

Cam Newton
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon LaFell
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Scott Chandler
Blair Walsh
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Marvin Jones	P
Antonio Brown
Greg Olsen
Blair Walsh
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon LaFell
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen
Dustin Hopkins
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
David Johnson
Charcandrick West	P
Antonio Brown
Travis Benjamin
Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
Charcandrick West	P
Michael Crabtree
Antonio Brown
Alshon Jeffery
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers

Week 13 Initial Thoughts

Here are the best players with the best looking matchps:

QB	RB	WR	TE	K	D
Newton, Cam	Peterson, Adrian	Baldwin, Doug	Reed, Jordan	Gano, Graham	Carolina
Brady, Tom	Stewart, Jonathan	Landry, Jarvis	Celek, Brent	Santos, Cairo	Kansas City
Hasselbeck, Matt	Mathews, Ryan	Marshall, Brandon	Barnidge, Gary	Myers, Jason	Tampa Bay
Dalton, Andy	Murray, DeMarco	Decker, Eric	Graham, Jimmy	Crosby, Mason	Houston
Mariota, Marcus	Blount, LeGarrette	Bryant, Martavis		Catanzaro, Chandler	Cincinnati
		Brown, Antonio
		Green, A.J.
		Benjamin, Travis
		Amendola, Danny

Week 12 Recap

I'm not going to post everything like I normally do; I'm traveling on the road. I did excellent in my 5050s but got greedy and lost about $9 from playing too many tournaments that my 5050s couldn't cover. My Eli lineup was on point. More 5050s, less tournaments...