Cash Game Strategy!

I'm accepting the fact that I'll never really do better than averaging 20th percent in the picks. I limit myself to just a few things that I look at, stat wise. So here's how I'll be picking cash games. (Cash games are games like 50/50 and Double Ups, where you are just trying to win your money back plus more.)

I will be looking for:

• High Floor Players
• High Floor Players with good Matchups
• High Floor Players with good Matchups who aren't injured.

These are the things you should be looking for if you have the time:

• High Floor Players with good Matchups vs. their opponents defensive position. For example, figure out if the WR is going to be playing against a top corner.
• Targets or Carries - Always a good stat no matter what you are doing.

Sorry, don't have time for that shit. I'm trying to win a few bucks without investing too much time. Casual DFS.

These are the things I don't care about in cash games:

• High potential, AKA Ceiling. I don't care if you could go for 22pts if you will most likely go for 14. Fuck you.
• Targets or Carries per attempt. Yeah, it's an average, and we can see what they will do on average, but there are too many variables for the 7 games that may come into play with this. I just don't see this being the main focus. It might be valuable, but it's not the most valuable thing.

So, here are the worst teams per position. You should be playing players who are playing against these teams per position. This is based off of last three weeks.

Against QB

CLE

CAR

DET

NO

MIA

CIN

Against RB
SF

PITT
CIN

ATL

CLE

TB

IND

PHI

Against WR

CHI

KC

CAR

DAL

BAL

NYJ

SEA

JAX

Against TE

CAR

CLE

IND

CIN

OAK

Here are two lineups that I think I really like:

Week 7 Results

Meh, I didn't bet much, but I did OK. I put down $4 and won $9. My Lineup was baller and got me in the money so I'm happy with that. I'm accepting that I'll never have the best of the best, so my strategy will change this week. Here's the lineups in the screenshot.

That second lineup was purely based off of one website's interests. I will never do that again.

See you in Week 8

WELCOME BACK FUCKERS

Ok so here's my new shit now that we have some weeks with some data.

Opposing, last three weeks:

I'm starting off easy. Below are all the teams that have sucked veiny dick against each position in the last three weeks. Pick players who are playing against these shit eating teams and you'll do fine. If you want to find the worst defense overall (fundamentally, for fantasy points, which is not a thing) in the last three weeks, it will be whoever hits all these categories.

Opposing QB's
CAR
CLE
NO
DET
KC

Opposing RB
SF
PHI
SD
NYJ
CIN
OAK
NYG
IND
CLE
PITT

Opposing WR
CAR
BAL
KC
SEA
LA
NYJ
DET
JAX
CHI
NO


Notes:

For RB against SD, Coleman and Freeman are splitting pts right down the middle. That kind of kills their potential, even against bad teams. I'm avoiding them, but one of them might unicorn.

OBJ is looking primed for awesomeoness but because he's so expensive I took someone lower. Maybe you can make a team with him.

Week 14 Lineups

Pos Player Name Inj Team Opp Salary FP Val
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick P NYJ TEN $7,800 18.2
RB Doug Martin TB NO $8,000 16.3 2.0
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR ATL $7,200 13.5
WR Mike Evans TB NO $8,000 12.5 1.6
WR Nate Washington HOU NE $5,200 10.3 2.0
WR Larry Fitzgerald Q ARI MIN $7,200 17.0
TE Greg Olsen CAR ATL $6,600 13.0 2.0
K Connor Barth TB NO $4,600 8.4 1.8
D Denver Broncos DEN OAK $5,400 9.8 1.8
Totals $60,000 119.0 2.0

Week 14 Match Ups

These are my favorite matchups so far:

QB's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Fitzpatrick, Ryan	nyj	ten	H	7800	300	72.82	3	24.27
Bortles, Blake	jac	ind	H	7700	300	67.82	3	22.6
Dalton, Andy	cin	pit	H	8200	200	66.62	3	22.2
Palmer, Carson	ari	min	H	8300	400	66.26	3	22.08
Winston, Jameis	tam	no	H	7800	600	64.92	3	21.64

WR's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Beckham Jr., Odell	nyg	mia	A	9300	-100	48.6	2	24.3
Marshall, Brandon	nyj	ten	H	8200	100	67.9	3	22.63
Robinson, Allen	jac	ind	H	8500	500	66.2	3	22.06
Wheaton, Markus	pit	cin	A	6100	100	43.1	2	21.55
Brown, Antonio	pit	cin	A	9300	300	41.9	2	20.95
Watkins, Sammy	buf	phi	A	7200	200	54.6	3	18.2
Johnson, Calvin	det	stl	A	7900	-600	54.5	3	18.16
Bryant, Martavis	pit	cin	A	7400	500	35.9	2	17.95
Green, A.J.	cin	pit	H	8500	100	52.3	3	17.43
Brown, John	ari	min	H	6300	300	39.4	3	13.13
Decker, Eric	nyj	ten	H	7300	100	38.9	3	12.96
Nelson, J.J.	ari	min	H	5400	300	38.9	3	12.96
Tate, Golden	det	stl	A	6400	-100	36.2	3	12.06
Fitzgerald, Larry	ari	min	H	7200	-100	34.1	3	11.36
Boldin, Anquan	sfo	cle	A	5900	-100	31.3	3	10.43
Green-Beckham, Dorial	ten	nyj	A	5100	0	30.6	3	10.2
Jones, Marvin	cin	pit	H	6200	1000	29	3	9.66

RB's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Martin, Doug	tam	no	H	8000	400	48.3	3	16.1
McCoy, LeSean	buf	phi	A	7900	100	48.1	3	16.03
Stewart, Jonathan	car	atl	H	7200	0	43.9	3	14.63
Sproles, Darren	phi	buf	H	5100	200	35.9	3	11.96
Blue, Alfred	hou	ne	H	5300	-700	32.7	3	10.9
Riddick, Theo	det	stl	A	5500	-300	32	3	10.66
Sims, Charles	tam	no	H	4900	-300	28.5	3	9.5

TE's - This is just matchups. I'd go with a rocksteady pick instead of matchups here.

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Rudolph, Kyle	min	ari	A	5000	-100	31.2	3	10.4
Brate, Cameron	tam	no	H	4900	0	28.2	3	9.4
Kelce, Travis	kan	sdg	H	6000	-200	27.2	3	9.06

DST

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Carolina	car	atl	H	5000	100	43	3	14.33
Kansas City	kan	sdg	H	4800	100	42	3	14
Denver	den	oak	H	5400	100	35	3	11.66
Seattle	sea	bal	A	5300	500	28	3	9.33
Detroit	det	stl	A	4700	200	21	3	7

Season Observations

I think I can accurately make some predictions about the flow of the season and where things are going to go, based on what I've read and what I've learned recently.

Bad teams will roll over

It's about that time in the season where bad teams will see the writing on the wall and give up. They'll win the games they are supposed to win but will secede to teams will most likely beat them. The teams who have no chance of getting into the playoffs will start to shut down for the season and being hibernation. Keep this is mind when looking at matchups.

Guaranteed teams will play it safe

If a team makes it to playoffs, don't expect them to do anything amazing once they are guaranteed. There's no chance they'll risk injuries or go above and beyond to beat a team.

Borderline teams will fight hard

Expect to see some amazing effort from teams with close matchups doing all they can to fight for the wildcard or reserve their spot in the playoffs. They'll throw the kitchen sink at other teams to get in.

Week 13 Results

Bet $24 and won $27, so it was a wash. I think I seriously lucked out by trusting the players to do well, because they did; everyone did. High scores all around. My four lineups were between 116 and 149 and only the 139 and 149 were in the money safely.

I think I can do a predicted and actual for some of my lineups, lets try:

Pos	Player Name	Inj	Team	Opp	Salary	FP	Act
QB	Cam Newton		CAR	@NO	$9,000	24	37.1
RB	DeAngelo Williams		PIT	IND	$7,200	17.7
RB	David Johnson		ARI	@STL	$5,900	16	19
WR	Antonio Brown		PIT	IND	$9,000	18.5	33.8
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	P	ARI	@STL	$7,300	15.8
WR	Marvin Jones		CIN	@CLE	$5,200	9.9	14
TE	Greg Olsen		CAR	@NO	$6,600	13.6	15.4
K	Blair Walsh		MIN	SEA	$4,800	8.8	1
D	Carolina Panthers		CAR	@NO	$4,900	10.8
Totals				$59,900	135.1	149.8

Meh, you get the point. I think I'm happy to have gotten out of that week as easily as I did. I was really worried for a bit, there was just way too high of performance from players would had semi- good matchups.