Cash Game Strategy!

I'm accepting the fact that I'll never really do better than averaging 20th percent in the picks. I limit myself to just a few things that I look at, stat wise. So here's how I'll be picking cash games. (Cash games are games like 50/50 and Double Ups, where you are just trying to win your money back plus more.)

I will be looking for:

• High Floor Players
• High Floor Players with good Matchups
• High Floor Players with good Matchups who aren't injured.

These are the things you should be looking for if you have the time:

• High Floor Players with good Matchups vs. their opponents defensive position. For example, figure out if the WR is going to be playing against a top corner.
• Targets or Carries - Always a good stat no matter what you are doing.

Sorry, don't have time for that shit. I'm trying to win a few bucks without investing too much time. Casual DFS.

These are the things I don't care about in cash games:

• High potential, AKA Ceiling. I don't care if you could go for 22pts if you will most likely go for 14. Fuck you.
• Targets or Carries per attempt. Yeah, it's an average, and we can see what they will do on average, but there are too many variables for the 7 games that may come into play with this. I just don't see this being the main focus. It might be valuable, but it's not the most valuable thing.

So, here are the worst teams per position. You should be playing players who are playing against these teams per position. This is based off of last three weeks.

Against QB

CLE

CAR

DET

NO

MIA

CIN

Against RB
SF

PITT
CIN

ATL

CLE

TB

IND

PHI

Against WR

CHI

KC

CAR

DAL

BAL

NYJ

SEA

JAX

Against TE

CAR

CLE

IND

CIN

OAK

Here are two lineups that I think I really like:

Week 7 Results

Meh, I didn't bet much, but I did OK. I put down $4 and won $9. My Lineup was baller and got me in the money so I'm happy with that. I'm accepting that I'll never have the best of the best, so my strategy will change this week. Here's the lineups in the screenshot.

That second lineup was purely based off of one website's interests. I will never do that again.

See you in Week 8

WELCOME BACK FUCKERS

Ok so here's my new shit now that we have some weeks with some data.

Opposing, last three weeks:

I'm starting off easy. Below are all the teams that have sucked veiny dick against each position in the last three weeks. Pick players who are playing against these shit eating teams and you'll do fine. If you want to find the worst defense overall (fundamentally, for fantasy points, which is not a thing) in the last three weeks, it will be whoever hits all these categories.

Opposing QB's
CAR
CLE
NO
DET
KC

Opposing RB
SF
PHI
SD
NYJ
CIN
OAK
NYG
IND
CLE
PITT

Opposing WR
CAR
BAL
KC
SEA
LA
NYJ
DET
JAX
CHI
NO


Notes:

For RB against SD, Coleman and Freeman are splitting pts right down the middle. That kind of kills their potential, even against bad teams. I'm avoiding them, but one of them might unicorn.

OBJ is looking primed for awesomeoness but because he's so expensive I took someone lower. Maybe you can make a team with him.

Week 14 Lineups

Pos Player Name Inj Team Opp Salary FP Val
QB Ryan Fitzpatrick P NYJ TEN $7,800 18.2
RB Doug Martin TB NO $8,000 16.3 2.0
RB Jonathan Stewart CAR ATL $7,200 13.5
WR Mike Evans TB NO $8,000 12.5 1.6
WR Nate Washington HOU NE $5,200 10.3 2.0
WR Larry Fitzgerald Q ARI MIN $7,200 17.0
TE Greg Olsen CAR ATL $6,600 13.0 2.0
K Connor Barth TB NO $4,600 8.4 1.8
D Denver Broncos DEN OAK $5,400 9.8 1.8
Totals $60,000 119.0 2.0

Week 14 Match Ups

These are my favorite matchups so far:

QB's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Fitzpatrick, Ryan	nyj	ten	H	7800	300	72.82	3	24.27
Bortles, Blake	jac	ind	H	7700	300	67.82	3	22.6
Dalton, Andy	cin	pit	H	8200	200	66.62	3	22.2
Palmer, Carson	ari	min	H	8300	400	66.26	3	22.08
Winston, Jameis	tam	no	H	7800	600	64.92	3	21.64

WR's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Beckham Jr., Odell	nyg	mia	A	9300	-100	48.6	2	24.3
Marshall, Brandon	nyj	ten	H	8200	100	67.9	3	22.63
Robinson, Allen	jac	ind	H	8500	500	66.2	3	22.06
Wheaton, Markus	pit	cin	A	6100	100	43.1	2	21.55
Brown, Antonio	pit	cin	A	9300	300	41.9	2	20.95
Watkins, Sammy	buf	phi	A	7200	200	54.6	3	18.2
Johnson, Calvin	det	stl	A	7900	-600	54.5	3	18.16
Bryant, Martavis	pit	cin	A	7400	500	35.9	2	17.95
Green, A.J.	cin	pit	H	8500	100	52.3	3	17.43
Brown, John	ari	min	H	6300	300	39.4	3	13.13
Decker, Eric	nyj	ten	H	7300	100	38.9	3	12.96
Nelson, J.J.	ari	min	H	5400	300	38.9	3	12.96
Tate, Golden	det	stl	A	6400	-100	36.2	3	12.06
Fitzgerald, Larry	ari	min	H	7200	-100	34.1	3	11.36
Boldin, Anquan	sfo	cle	A	5900	-100	31.3	3	10.43
Green-Beckham, Dorial	ten	nyj	A	5100	0	30.6	3	10.2
Jones, Marvin	cin	pit	H	6200	1000	29	3	9.66

RB's

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Martin, Doug	tam	no	H	8000	400	48.3	3	16.1
McCoy, LeSean	buf	phi	A	7900	100	48.1	3	16.03
Stewart, Jonathan	car	atl	H	7200	0	43.9	3	14.63
Sproles, Darren	phi	buf	H	5100	200	35.9	3	11.96
Blue, Alfred	hou	ne	H	5300	-700	32.7	3	10.9
Riddick, Theo	det	stl	A	5500	-300	32	3	10.66
Sims, Charles	tam	no	H	4900	-300	28.5	3	9.5

TE's - This is just matchups. I'd go with a rocksteady pick instead of matchups here.

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Rudolph, Kyle	min	ari	A	5000	-100	31.2	3	10.4
Brate, Cameron	tam	no	H	4900	0	28.2	3	9.4
Kelce, Travis	kan	sdg	H	6000	-200	27.2	3	9.06

DST

Name	Team	Opponent	Home/Away	Salary	Salary Change	Points	GP	Pts/Game
Carolina	car	atl	H	5000	100	43	3	14.33
Kansas City	kan	sdg	H	4800	100	42	3	14
Denver	den	oak	H	5400	100	35	3	11.66
Seattle	sea	bal	A	5300	500	28	3	9.33
Detroit	det	stl	A	4700	200	21	3	7

Season Observations

I think I can accurately make some predictions about the flow of the season and where things are going to go, based on what I've read and what I've learned recently.

Bad teams will roll over

It's about that time in the season where bad teams will see the writing on the wall and give up. They'll win the games they are supposed to win but will secede to teams will most likely beat them. The teams who have no chance of getting into the playoffs will start to shut down for the season and being hibernation. Keep this is mind when looking at matchups.

Guaranteed teams will play it safe

If a team makes it to playoffs, don't expect them to do anything amazing once they are guaranteed. There's no chance they'll risk injuries or go above and beyond to beat a team.

Borderline teams will fight hard

Expect to see some amazing effort from teams with close matchups doing all they can to fight for the wildcard or reserve their spot in the playoffs. They'll throw the kitchen sink at other teams to get in.

Week 13 Results

Bet $24 and won $27, so it was a wash. I think I seriously lucked out by trusting the players to do well, because they did; everyone did. High scores all around. My four lineups were between 116 and 149 and only the 139 and 149 were in the money safely.

I think I can do a predicted and actual for some of my lineups, lets try:

Pos	Player Name	Inj	Team	Opp	Salary	FP	Act
QB	Cam Newton		CAR	@NO	$9,000	24	37.1
RB	DeAngelo Williams		PIT	IND	$7,200	17.7
RB	David Johnson		ARI	@STL	$5,900	16	19
WR	Antonio Brown		PIT	IND	$9,000	18.5	33.8
WR	Larry Fitzgerald	P	ARI	@STL	$7,300	15.8
WR	Marvin Jones		CIN	@CLE	$5,200	9.9	14
TE	Greg Olsen		CAR	@NO	$6,600	13.6	15.4
K	Blair Walsh		MIN	SEA	$4,800	8.8	1
D	Carolina Panthers		CAR	@NO	$4,900	10.8
Totals				$59,900	135.1	149.8

Meh, you get the point. I think I'm happy to have gotten out of that week as easily as I did. I was really worried for a bit, there was just way too high of performance from players would had semi- good matchups.

Week 13 Picks

I went a little farther in depth and stopped stressing so much with lineups this week. I going to see if lineups can do better by just relying on the skill set of the players and less of the match ups. Also, I completely eliminated any team playing in the rain, snow, less than 50 degrees or with winds higher than 10mph.

Also, my tables are looking better in my excel sheet. Can you tell?

Cam Newton
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon LaFell
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Scott Chandler
Blair Walsh
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Marvin Jones	P
Antonio Brown
Greg Olsen
Blair Walsh
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon LaFell
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen
Dustin Hopkins
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
David Johnson
Charcandrick West	P
Antonio Brown
Travis Benjamin
Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
Charcandrick West	P
Michael Crabtree
Antonio Brown
Alshon Jeffery
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers

Week 13 Initial Thoughts

Here are the best players with the best looking matchps:

QB	RB	WR	TE	K	D
Newton, Cam	Peterson, Adrian	Baldwin, Doug	Reed, Jordan	Gano, Graham	Carolina
Brady, Tom	Stewart, Jonathan	Landry, Jarvis	Celek, Brent	Santos, Cairo	Kansas City
Hasselbeck, Matt	Mathews, Ryan	Marshall, Brandon	Barnidge, Gary	Myers, Jason	Tampa Bay
Dalton, Andy	Murray, DeMarco	Decker, Eric	Graham, Jimmy	Crosby, Mason	Houston
Mariota, Marcus	Blount, LeGarrette	Bryant, Martavis		Catanzaro, Chandler	Cincinnati
		Brown, Antonio
		Green, A.J.
		Benjamin, Travis
		Amendola, Danny

Week 12 Recap

I'm not going to post everything like I normally do; I'm traveling on the road. I did excellent in my 5050s but got greedy and lost about $9 from playing too many tournaments that my 5050s couldn't cover. My Eli lineup was on point. More 5050s, less tournaments...

Week 12 Picks

Man, this was really tough, so I'm not going to put any frills on this weekend and I'm going to do two lineups for Thursday night to Monday. Going to play this one safe.

Lineup 1:

Manning
Ivory
Blue
OBJ
S Johnson
A Brown
Barnridge
Barth
Kansas City

Lineup 2:

Palmer
C Johnson
Yeldon
Decker
Thomas
Fitz
Eifert
Gould
Cardinals

$300 left over after lineup 2. Make your changes as necessary.

Thursday Only? I have no idea: Stafford, Stewart, Forte, Jeffrey, C Johnson, Cobb, Bennett, Gould, Panthers

Week 12 Prospects

This is dumb. I hate the split between who plays on Thursday and who plays the rest of typically scheduled football. I ruled out a lot of players and good reasons for all of them, but for the time being I'm just going to post the players I like. I need to suck it up and pick two lineups for either Thursday only or Thursday night to Monday night. I think I'm going to do the Thursday night to Monday night but that really pisses me off that I have to dip so low into the picks because we are basically losing half the league to Thanksgiving Day games. This is a huge win for FanDuel...

New little feature. I'm just coping and pasting out of my match up pivot table. So if you see a colorful table you'll see the full technical picks based on the best players per position in the last three weeks playing the worst teams against each position, all greater than 10 points average per game.

QB: Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Hoyer if you're looking for some set up for greatness at value.

Palmer, Carson

Wilson, Russell

RB: Ivory, West, and Blue at value.

Ivory, Chris

Yeldon, T.J.

Draughn, Shaun

Blue, Alfred

Powell, Bilal

WR: OBJ, Antonio Brown, and I'm currently stacking Dwayne Harris in a value spot as he's a solid WR2 pick to go along with my other two studs.

Brown, Antonio

Jones, Julio

Bryant, Martavis

Beckham Jr., Odell

Evans, Mike

Baldwin, Doug

Jackson, Vincent

Landry, Jarvis

Aiken, Kamar

Hankerson, Leonard

Johnson, Calvin

Thomas, Demaryius

Lockett, Tyler

TE: Barnridge is in the best position statistically but what the fuck do I know about TE's?

K: Brown has the highest FandDuel points per game per dollar value and he's going to be on a high scoring winnings team. So yeah.

Def: Bucs. I have to have someone playing on the bucs, that's all I care about. Indianapolis has no WR or QB in a top 10 spot and you never have to worry about the Bucs stopping a run game - they just stop run games.

I'll try and add more prospects as I go.

Week 11 Results

Terrible.

 

Bet $52, lost $52.

It was a tough week for everyone playing, the high scores were around 129, which is pathetic. Lots of injuries, lots of players who simply didn't perform. The best matchups didn't seem to matter, the best players didn't hit their 2x.

What I learned

It was dumb to pit a running back who had all the potential in the world against a run stopping defense. The bucs shut down Philly, not just Murray. I realized how counter-intuitive it was to pick a RB who had no chance against a good defense. Technically and fundamentally Murray could have done far better but he did not because the matchup shut him down. Matchups mean more to the RB position than I thought.

Tight ends shouldn't be gambled in cash games. I know, Gronk didn't do well either, but Tamme was not the second or even third best TE to pick. He had the metrics to deliver a good game but he's not a high floor tight end.

Injuries can happen everywhere. Evans took a huge hit early and wasn't passed to. Crabtree took a huge hit and they backed off on him. Injuries are the wild card of DFS that you can't account for with most players. Sure, we knew Amendola (knee) was going to get hurt, but you can't always predict things like that. But you can't guess them all.

It is very had to win when your QB doesn't do well. That's all there is to say about that.

I'm retarded with my bankroll. I bet everything on these games. I should have stuck with the 20% over a minimum of two lineups strategy. My thinking there was that, based on the numbers, there was no chance other players would do well this week. Well, no other players did well, it's just that mine didn't do well either.

Week 12 to come. 

Week 11 Picks

It's funny how quickly, looking back at prospects, things change. Of course the best of the best stayed on my picks but I'm pretty determined to stay true to my selection criteria this week.

QB: Carr

Notes: No other QB is facing a worse defense both against WRs and QBs right now. I'm very happy with this pick.

RB: D Murray, L Miller
Others: West, Langford

Notes: I'm risking Murray's high carries will be awarded to him again this week because they are using a backup QB and have a WR on the bench this week. Bucs don't do too bad at stopping the run game but that's not to say they won't have their issues.

WR: C Johnson, M Crabtree, M Evans
Others: D Hopkins, A Robinson

Notes: You could probably mix and match those five and do really well this week. I'm excited for Mike Evans going up against the worst defense against WRs this week. Calvin Johnson is a serious toss up between him and A Robinson as they are both in the same value but Johnson is still outpacing anyone else on his team and he's getting the targets. Hopkins will be an excellent pick this week if you an afford him, everything looks to be in line for him. Finally, Crabtree is doing far better than Amari Cooper right now.

TE: Tamme
Others: Gronk

Notes: If you can afford Gronk then you should play him, no matter what. Tamme has been following the criteria rules for the last few games, I'm sticking with him.

Kicker: C Catanzaro

Notes: Of the top five kickers in the last three weeks, Catanzaro has the highest scoring game as predicted by Vegas. Not much to say after that.

Defense: Bucs

Notes: Bucs have a bad secondary but are great at stopping the running game. Playing Philly, with an injured WR and QB, they should have no problem shutting them down. Also, Vegas shows the game scoring low.

Week 11 Strategy: Matured Best vs. Worst

I'm running out of fancy names for the titles of this bullshit but here goes:

Criteria order from most important to least important.

QB:

1. Highest scoring QBs, normally top ten
2. Playing the worst Defense against QBs
3. Most passing attempts
4. Playing the worst Defense against WRs
5. Vegas predicting high scoring but tight games.

Notes: I'd actually like to try a blended average of worst defense against QBs and WRs. That would really be awesome, but I'm lazy. You can always find someone who fits the first three criteria. If your QB's team is going to absolutely crush the other team this week you may want to look elsewhere, teams tend to run the ball if they are up by enough.

RB:

1. Highest scoring RBs, normally RB1 top five and RB2 top 15
2. Playing worst Defense against RBs
3. Vegas predicting a high scoring game with your RB on the winning team
4. Most rushing attempts (Not yards!)
5. Game flow and injuries

Notes: Variance between best RBs and worst defenses is valued most in the RB position than any other position. This should matter most. You'll see a huge boost in points if the game is predicted to be high scoring with your team favored to win, mainly because teams tend to run the ball when they take a large lead.

WR:

1. Highest scoring WRs
2. Targets, targets, targets
3. Playing worst defenses against WRs
4. Matchup against the corner. Does that corner shadow the best WR or stay on one side?
5. Injuries

Notes: A good WR will get open no matter who they are playing, but they'll always do better in the first half against teams they intend to beat. Make sure they are targeted heavily and good things will come. You can spend some time looking into their corner match up for the week. This will have some real value as some corners tend to out perform others while they shadow the best WRs. If your WR always lines up left but the defense they are playing always puts their best corner on the right, you can expect some serious gains.

TE:

1. Highest scoring TEs
2. Playing worst defense against TEs
3. Playing worst defense against WRs
4. Size matters! There's a direct correlation to TE's size and redzone touchdown scoring
5. Playing against pass rushing defenses

Notes: 1 and 2 are weighted the most, but if you're looking for an edge you can look into the type of defense your picks are playing. If the defense makes your TE's QB make quick decisions you'll get yards.

K:

1. Vegas predictions on high scoring games
2. Highest scoring Ks

Notes: Not much here. I wouldn't spend big money on kickers. High scoring games that Vegas predicts will equate to more chances for kickers. It's that easy.

DEF:

1. Highest scoring DEFs
2. Turnovers and opponent turnovers
3. Vegas predicting low scoring games
4. Playing against a QB with lots of interceptions

Notes: The lower the score the better, but defenses really get points when they are able to turn the ball over. Also, check out how well the other QB is doing. You can find that stat on the day of the game by google "Bovada QB Player Props" and looking at how many turnovers Vegas (I know Bovada is Latvian) are predicted.

Week 11 Prospects

This document is intended for notes and does is not a complete lineup.

QB: Carr has the best matchup against all QBs, Detroit. He's a shoe in.

WR: Really tough to tell this week. There are 0 (Maybe 1?) WRs that are in the top 10 in scoring who are playing the bottom 10 defenses.

RB: I like to first take the top 10 FD point scoring RBs, then choose whoever is playing the worst defenses, and pick the ones who have the most carries. Steps 1 and 2 leave us with West, Langford, and Miller; none of which have the most carries. Carries is the most important stat here, so I may have to make some changes to how I go about doing this for the week.

TE: No information yet. I really like Antonio Gates, but we'll see.

K: Connor Barth again, always.

Def: Bengals based on match ups.

Other Guys:

Really looking hard at Murray right now. Bradford and Matthews are both injured and out this week. That means lots of handoffs to the one and only. He's 10th in attempts, 4th in FD points, and is playing the Bucs who don't do a terrible job at stopping RBs but aren't the best in the world at 19th.

Week 10 Results

A very successful week. Cousins came through and I was very happy with where the rest of my value picks landed.

Total Points: 146.76
Total Bet: $26
Total Won: 50 something dollars...

Results

I was very happy to see that my guys came through. 146 would have put me in the money for any double up or 5050 on FanDuel. And because there was such a low ceiling I was in the top 5 for every entry I made. That's a good feeling.

My favorite picks were, of course, Cousins, who was destined to have a great game but was such a low value player it freed up a ton of cash for a high level pick like AP. I was a litte sore about Evans not getting more yards. They throw so deep to him but he's more likely to draw a penalty than come down with a catch. Reed was my second favorite pick, only because he was chosen purely for the amount he's targeted. Seeing him get that first touchdown within minutes of the game felt great.

Rams were my most disappointing choice. I hate spending the most money for a position when it doesn't play out. I strive to break even with Defense and they didn't do anything exciting.

I'm beginning to mold my strategy and it's starting to pay off; literally.

Stats that matter most per position

I'm going to start laying out the groundwork for the things that matter most per position, so they can be skipped. I learned in Week 9 that using one stat for each position did not do well. Some stats are worth more than others. Let's narrow it down to the one's that matter the most.

Eventually, the goal here is to create a "research schedule" that begins with what you first look for all the way down to the last things to consider when making your picks, including a weight for each of those things so you know how much emphasis you should put on each player.

Quarterbacks

Recently I've learned that game flow matters more than the matchup. A great QB on a team crushing a bad team will pull back on the reigns and run the ball, hurting your QB points for the week. Here's what I intend to look at for QBs:

1. Must be top 10 QB (most FD points average per game last three weeks) playing bottom 10 defense against QBs
2. One of the highest Sunday Play Props by Vegas
3. Tighter point spreads means more work for QBs instead of game flow dictating that they take a break when they are up, so the tighter the point spread the better.

Wide Receivers

If you could get rid of every stat, targets would matter the most.

1. Must be top 10 WR (most FD points average per game last three weeks) playing bottom 10 defense against WRs.
2. WR1 and WR2 should have very high average targets, they could even be on the same team.
3. WR3 should have high average targets and could be handcuffed to the QB.

Running Backs

Carries and matchups matter the most with RBs. The matchup matters more in RBs than anywhere else in Fantasy football. 

1. Must be top 5 RB1 (most FD points average per game last three weeks) playing bottom 5 defense against RB.
2. The bigger the point spread and the higher over/under the better the RB will do throughout the entire game, with the exception of a few teams who will use their Fullback to run plays if they are killing it.
3. Carries beats all! The more carries the better!

Rookie move: Signing up too soon

I just signed up for three low money $1 50/50s on Monday, three days before football starts on Thursday. Rookie move. Looking at the profiles of the people signing up that soon I can see I've got my work cut out for me. Their winnings were in the thousands compared to the measly trial and error scraps I've brought in.

Word of caution: Do not sign up early. You want to pit yourself against the guy who was just convinced on Wednesday to sign up on FanDuel and limp into a low ball 50/50. You don't want to play a few dozen guys who are doing so well that Monday Night Football means nothing to this weekend's entries so they are already thinking about next Thursday.

I'll see you Wednesday.

Week 10 Strategy: Over/Under Picks

Vegas has been around longer than all of us. It's common knowledge that higher scoring games produce more fantasy points. Let's use some research elsewhere as well as the Vegas over/under this week to pick the best players from the bunch.

Here's what we'll look for this week:

• Any team favored in a game where the over/under is greater than 48.
• Any underdog in a game where the over/under is greater than 50.

And then we'll use Week 9's Best vs. Worst to find the most valuable players on those teams.

More to come.