Week 13 Picks

I went a little farther in depth and stopped stressing so much with lineups this week. I going to see if lineups can do better by just relying on the skill set of the players and less of the match ups. Also, I completely eliminated any team playing in the rain, snow, less than 50 degrees or with winds higher than 10mph.

Also, my tables are looking better in my excel sheet. Can you tell?

Cam Newton
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon LaFell
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Scott Chandler
Blair Walsh
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Marvin Jones	P
Antonio Brown
Greg Olsen
Blair Walsh
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Brandon LaFell
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
DeAngelo Williams
Larry Fitzgerald	Q
Antonio Brown
Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen
Dustin Hopkins
Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton
David Johnson
Charcandrick West	P
Antonio Brown
Travis Benjamin
Michael Crabtree
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers
Matthew Stafford
David Johnson
Charcandrick West	P
Michael Crabtree
Antonio Brown
Alshon Jeffery
Greg Olsen
Chandler Catanzaro
Carolina Panthers

Week 13 Initial Thoughts

Here are the best players with the best looking matchps:

QB	RB	WR	TE	K	D
Newton, Cam	Peterson, Adrian	Baldwin, Doug	Reed, Jordan	Gano, Graham	Carolina
Brady, Tom	Stewart, Jonathan	Landry, Jarvis	Celek, Brent	Santos, Cairo	Kansas City
Hasselbeck, Matt	Mathews, Ryan	Marshall, Brandon	Barnidge, Gary	Myers, Jason	Tampa Bay
Dalton, Andy	Murray, DeMarco	Decker, Eric	Graham, Jimmy	Crosby, Mason	Houston
Mariota, Marcus	Blount, LeGarrette	Bryant, Martavis		Catanzaro, Chandler	Cincinnati
		Brown, Antonio
		Green, A.J.
		Benjamin, Travis
		Amendola, Danny

Week 12 Recap

I'm not going to post everything like I normally do; I'm traveling on the road. I did excellent in my 5050s but got greedy and lost about $9 from playing too many tournaments that my 5050s couldn't cover. My Eli lineup was on point. More 5050s, less tournaments...

Week 12 Picks

Man, this was really tough, so I'm not going to put any frills on this weekend and I'm going to do two lineups for Thursday night to Monday. Going to play this one safe.

Lineup 1:

Manning
Ivory
Blue
OBJ
S Johnson
A Brown
Barnridge
Barth
Kansas City

Lineup 2:

Palmer
C Johnson
Yeldon
Decker
Thomas
Fitz
Eifert
Gould
Cardinals

$300 left over after lineup 2. Make your changes as necessary.

Thursday Only? I have no idea: Stafford, Stewart, Forte, Jeffrey, C Johnson, Cobb, Bennett, Gould, Panthers

Week 12 Prospects

This is dumb. I hate the split between who plays on Thursday and who plays the rest of typically scheduled football. I ruled out a lot of players and good reasons for all of them, but for the time being I'm just going to post the players I like. I need to suck it up and pick two lineups for either Thursday only or Thursday night to Monday night. I think I'm going to do the Thursday night to Monday night but that really pisses me off that I have to dip so low into the picks because we are basically losing half the league to Thanksgiving Day games. This is a huge win for FanDuel...

New little feature. I'm just coping and pasting out of my match up pivot table. So if you see a colorful table you'll see the full technical picks based on the best players per position in the last three weeks playing the worst teams against each position, all greater than 10 points average per game.

QB: Eli Manning, Matt Stafford, and Hoyer if you're looking for some set up for greatness at value.

Palmer, Carson

Wilson, Russell

RB: Ivory, West, and Blue at value.

Ivory, Chris

Yeldon, T.J.

Draughn, Shaun

Blue, Alfred

Powell, Bilal

WR: OBJ, Antonio Brown, and I'm currently stacking Dwayne Harris in a value spot as he's a solid WR2 pick to go along with my other two studs.

Brown, Antonio

Jones, Julio

Bryant, Martavis

Beckham Jr., Odell

Evans, Mike

Baldwin, Doug

Jackson, Vincent

Landry, Jarvis

Aiken, Kamar

Hankerson, Leonard

Johnson, Calvin

Thomas, Demaryius

Lockett, Tyler

TE: Barnridge is in the best position statistically but what the fuck do I know about TE's?

K: Brown has the highest FandDuel points per game per dollar value and he's going to be on a high scoring winnings team. So yeah.

Def: Bucs. I have to have someone playing on the bucs, that's all I care about. Indianapolis has no WR or QB in a top 10 spot and you never have to worry about the Bucs stopping a run game - they just stop run games.

I'll try and add more prospects as I go.

Week 11 Results

Terrible.

 

Bet $52, lost $52.

It was a tough week for everyone playing, the high scores were around 129, which is pathetic. Lots of injuries, lots of players who simply didn't perform. The best matchups didn't seem to matter, the best players didn't hit their 2x.

What I learned

It was dumb to pit a running back who had all the potential in the world against a run stopping defense. The bucs shut down Philly, not just Murray. I realized how counter-intuitive it was to pick a RB who had no chance against a good defense. Technically and fundamentally Murray could have done far better but he did not because the matchup shut him down. Matchups mean more to the RB position than I thought.

Tight ends shouldn't be gambled in cash games. I know, Gronk didn't do well either, but Tamme was not the second or even third best TE to pick. He had the metrics to deliver a good game but he's not a high floor tight end.

Injuries can happen everywhere. Evans took a huge hit early and wasn't passed to. Crabtree took a huge hit and they backed off on him. Injuries are the wild card of DFS that you can't account for with most players. Sure, we knew Amendola (knee) was going to get hurt, but you can't always predict things like that. But you can't guess them all.

It is very had to win when your QB doesn't do well. That's all there is to say about that.

I'm retarded with my bankroll. I bet everything on these games. I should have stuck with the 20% over a minimum of two lineups strategy. My thinking there was that, based on the numbers, there was no chance other players would do well this week. Well, no other players did well, it's just that mine didn't do well either.

Week 12 to come. 

Week 11 Picks

It's funny how quickly, looking back at prospects, things change. Of course the best of the best stayed on my picks but I'm pretty determined to stay true to my selection criteria this week.

QB: Carr

Notes: No other QB is facing a worse defense both against WRs and QBs right now. I'm very happy with this pick.

RB: D Murray, L Miller
Others: West, Langford

Notes: I'm risking Murray's high carries will be awarded to him again this week because they are using a backup QB and have a WR on the bench this week. Bucs don't do too bad at stopping the run game but that's not to say they won't have their issues.

WR: C Johnson, M Crabtree, M Evans
Others: D Hopkins, A Robinson

Notes: You could probably mix and match those five and do really well this week. I'm excited for Mike Evans going up against the worst defense against WRs this week. Calvin Johnson is a serious toss up between him and A Robinson as they are both in the same value but Johnson is still outpacing anyone else on his team and he's getting the targets. Hopkins will be an excellent pick this week if you an afford him, everything looks to be in line for him. Finally, Crabtree is doing far better than Amari Cooper right now.

TE: Tamme
Others: Gronk

Notes: If you can afford Gronk then you should play him, no matter what. Tamme has been following the criteria rules for the last few games, I'm sticking with him.

Kicker: C Catanzaro

Notes: Of the top five kickers in the last three weeks, Catanzaro has the highest scoring game as predicted by Vegas. Not much to say after that.

Defense: Bucs

Notes: Bucs have a bad secondary but are great at stopping the running game. Playing Philly, with an injured WR and QB, they should have no problem shutting them down. Also, Vegas shows the game scoring low.